The Eye Test
Written by Ruairidh Barlow
Fervid worshippers of the eye test, the belief that sight is the most reliable tool of assessment, have ceded large swathes of territory to the numerical assault on the football. The rise of the digits, 500 to hand at all times for the most involved statisticians, have meant a much more data-based analysis is necessary for even the most verbal, visual and verbose members of the conversation. It might not be deep data, but one statistic has left Spain flummoxed, with a feeling of deception – the league table.
Barcelona were not supposed to be top, that was where Real Madrid belonged. Twelve days before LaLiga turned off the lights for nearly eight weeks, Los Blancos were atop the table and with a two point gap to Barcelona – the crucial difference between the two shown in their El Clásico victory.
The early season conclusions had materialised, been inked into print and recorded into sound. Real Madrid had barely missed a beat. Despite the absence of their conductor Karim Benzema for much of the season, and the lack of their tuba player Casemiro entirely, perhaps less gainly than his classy partners in the brass department, but capable of different things, Los Blancos were arguably an even smoother operation than last campaign. If Benzema had missed nearly half of their matches at this stage last season, it would have completely derailed the team. Yet the Real Madrid locomotive barely slowed, furiously stoked with coal by the tireless Fede Valverde.
Barcelona were a prisoner of their own nightmares. Until the international break, things were going well. Optimism rose with the decibels at Camp Nou, to levels not seen for several years. Then a series of muscle injuries severely hamstrung them, particularly in defence. Even if their league form had held up, when Inter and Bayern Munich punched back with a little more force, Barcelona crumpled under the pressure.
Haunted by their European struggles, in the space of five days they were knocked out of the Champions League and surrendered the league lead with defeat to Real Madrid. This was perhaps a better team, with better players, but it was the same defensive demons that would prevent them from competing against teams of their own supposed level.
In the space of two weeks, some of the stable ground shifted underneath us. Real Madrid’s draw against Girona (1-1) and subsequent defeat to Rayo Vallecano (3-2) made it clear that their defence was in fact a problem. Responsible for just five clean sheets in 21 matches, even the previously faultless Thibaut Courtois looks a shade slower to react. At Vallecas, the suspension of Toni Kroos – enforced by two fouls to stop breakaways against Girona – hinted that the German’s imperious form was a large part of the reason for their control in midfield. Without it, and without Casemiro, Real Madrid struggled to survive the Rayo onslaught.
Meanwhile, Barcelona won like Real Madrid. There was will and it showed the way. At Mestalla, Robert Lewandowski extended his Inspector Gadget foot to prod home a 94th minute winner, courtesy of a splendid assist from a questioned Raphinha. Ten days later, without Lewandowski and with a goal disadvantage, they dug themselves trenches and eventually fought their way out of El Sadar with three points. This time the benched Raphinha and the man they tried desperately to sell, Frenkie de Jong, combined for the winner. The lines close together, the attitude sanguine and the pressure held at bay, the Blaugrana emerged through the night with grit and unity they were not supposed to have.
It’s a disconcerting sight for many to look at the LaLiga table now. There are of course mitigating factors. All things considered, Carlo Ancelotti’s team has dealt without Benzema and Courtois for much of the season exceptionally well. The point at which the season has been paused is somewhat coincidental, and the sample size smaller than usual before a winter break.
Domestically though, the numbers show that Barcelona are slightly ahead of Real Madrid so far though. Marc-Andre ter Stegen has conceded (5) just over a third of the goals Andriy Lunin and Courtois have (14), while the Blaugrana have drawn one less game, in spite of their own crippling injuries. For 54 days, Barcelona can grow confident that their work is paying off, while Real Madrid will return from the break aware of deeply aware of their own mortality. It might mean absolutely nothing. But it’s a twist that didn’t seem to fit the plot, meaning the consequences are just as unpredictable.