Passes, possession and permutations...
Rest assured, there won't be ANY chickens counted tonight.
Picking eleven players to represent a nation must be an agonising task, particularly when that nation has hundreds, if not thousands of people who could probably do it very well.
But Luis Enrique is ruthless, in his own likeable way. And decisions, when it comes to the Spanish national side, are often questioned, debated and criticised, but always firm and final.
Even before the 2022 World Cup had begun, the likes of David De Gea, Thiago, Mikel Merino, Sergio Canales, to name a few, just didn't quite fit. And in Qatar, Ansu Fati, Marcos Llorente, Yeremi Pino and Pau Torres haven’t yet been trusted to carry out Lucho’s very specific orders.
With just one game to go, however, before what could be Spain’s eighth attempt at the World Cup group stages, perhaps freshness takes precedence over that perfect system. Just one, final point would take La Selección over the line, but it may need to be earned slightly less precisely than the other four.
One of the greatest successes of Spain’s World Cup so far has been the control that they have been able to assert in the middle of the pitch. Having recorded 64% possession against Germany, in addition to a record-breaking 81.8% against Costa Rica, Enrique’s men made it 27 consecutive competitive games in which they have controlled over 60% of the ball, stringing together over 700 passes in 22 of those contests.
While the terrific triangles of Gavi, Pedri and Busquets are the possessional heartbeat, the inverted roles of Dani Olmo and Ferran Torres have invited more players to join the build-up, while Marco Asensio’s job as the false nine has provided another central hinge around which the Spanish can construct attacks.
Aș per The Athletic, at Euro 2020, one in five of Spain’s sequences of 10 or more passes ended with a shot or a touch in the opposition area, demonstrating their ability, and indeed their desire, to build as a unit, and to dominate games through long series of possession. And, at the World Cup in 2022, these inverted wingers - as shown through Dani Olmo’s touch map against Costa Rica below - provide even more passing options in those central areas to build those successful team moves.
All of this, combined with concerns over player fitness and welfare, leaves Lucho with some interesting decisions to make.
Having assured the media that his side will not purposefully play for second spot, to avoid a potential meeting against Brazil, expect to see a Spanish side going for the win, against Japanese opposition who need three points themselves, and who have proven, against Germany, that they do have a sting in their tail.
Aiming to maintain possession, to control and contain effervescent opposition, but also to keep the side fresh, it remains to be seen whether Enrique will look to recreate his ideal system, even without some of his fatiguing ever-presents.
Against Germany, for example, despite ultimately grabbing a decisive goal, Álvaro Morata’s introduction, and the loss of that false nine profile, left notable gaps in the Spanish press, as the side ceded pressure while they tried to adapt. But if Luis Enrique wants to give his star men a rest, maybe utilising more attack-minded, direct players in forward areas, sacrificing that domination of the ball, might be the only way,
Do let us know your preferred starting lineups in the comments below. What would you change for this crucial game if you were Luis Enrique, and perhaps more importantly, what would you leave the same?