One positive and one negative for Real Madrid ahead of El Clásico
Nine shots, six on target, and an expected goals figure of 1.66.
Seventeen shots, eight of which on target, and an expected goals figure of 1.90.
The library of bizarre Real Madrid facts and statistics in European football is a large and grandiose place, big enough to get lost in, but more than one reader will raise an eyebrow at the fact that the first line given pertains to Real Madrid’s stunning 5-2 victory over Liverpool Anfield, while the second was their 1-0 win at the Santiago Bernabéu.
Given the chances they had, the result looked a little anaemic on Wednesday night. Real Madrid, with the tie tilted in their favour, found plenty of joy against Liverpool’s backline but could not convert their chances.
In the first leg, it was Real Madrid at their swashbuckling best in Europe - ruthless, irrepressible and with little regard for the pattern of the game. What will concern Ancelotti is that it seems to be more of an outlier than the norm at this point.
In Europe, they will be less concerned by the Liverpool second leg with the safety blanket of a three-goal lead, but more often than not since February, Real Madrid have underperformed their expected goals. Against Liverpool at the Bernabéu, Los Blancos created plenty of opportunities, but out of character, found any number of ways to fluff the final pass or shot. Indeed Karim Benzema’s goal was the result of just that from Vinícius Júnior, who at least managed to recover in time to make light of his air shot.
Benzema himself wheeled away from that simple finish limping, and while he says he will be fine for Sunday night’s El Clásico, it would not be the first time he and Real Madrid had cried ‘fit’ this season.
Their problem against Barcelona partly stems from the fact that the Catalan side have none of the incentive that Liverpool did to come after Real Madrid. No doubt they will seek to make the game more even than during their first-leg Copa del Rey win, but they will feel confident they can shut Real Madrid down defending in their own half too. If Los Blancos find themselves facing Marc-Andre ter Stegen in the bowels of the defensive death star, then they cannot afford similar frivolity.
The good news for Carlo Ancelotti is that they might not have to score two or three goals to get a result. For while they have not been dropping defensive masterclasses, there is at least some form of solidity appearing through the mist.
With David Alaba and Éder Militão partnering each other last season, Real Madrid were rarely impregnable, but they did have a base to work with. Right now, Antonio Rüdiger looks settled next to the Brazilian.
In La Liga, Real Madrid have now kept seven clean sheets in their last nine games. The only exceptions to that were a set-piece conceded against Atlético Madrid, and a rather amateur error against Espanyol from Eduardo Camavinga leading to Joselu Mató’s delicious finish. That mistake came from a young player out of position though, and Sunday will likely see Nacho Fernández or Ferland Mendy there instead - both of those goals are fixable.
Real Madrid got the job done against Liverpool, anything else would have been a shock. Barcelona will be an altogether different test on Sunday, with conditions far less suited to them. Los Blancos will feel victory is essential for their title hopes, and perhaps that threat of being knocked out of the race might motivate them to treat it as a knockout tie. Following Real Madrid’s 0-0 draw against Real Betis, Ancelotti asked his side for balance - finding that against Barcelona will be crucial.