Barcelona’s defensive performance: Fact or fiction?
The numbers tell a compelling story, but is that reflected in reality?
Barcelona kept another clean sheet on Saturday, beating Girona 1-0 at Montilivi, extending their lead at the summit of LaLiga to six points, at least for 24 hours.
Xavi’s side have been far from prolific in the league this season. Indeed, phenomenal frontman Robert Lewandowski’s goals account for 35% of their 37 strikes in the league, and the Poland international has missed the last three matches through suspension.
Their next highest-scorers are Ousmane Dembélé and Pedri, with five apiece. The latter scored the winning goal for the second match running, netting against Girona on his 100th Barça appearance, following his strike against Getafe last weekend. They have won all three games without Lewandowski by that slender 1-0 scoreline, a result they have recorded six times in their 18 games so far.
What this tells us is that Lewandowski is fundamental to their approach, not just in his goalscoring output, but his occupation of the space and opposition defenders. Without him, Barça lack bite in the final third, and their play tends to become too safe and conservative.
Thankfully for Xavi, Lewandowski’s ban is now over. However, as one key player returns, another is set for a spell on the sidelines. Dembélé picked up an injury in the first half and the reported prognosis is a month out, a bitter blow for the leaders.
Given the attacking conundrums, the defence has been crucial. Their record is incredible, almost historically unprecedented.
After 18 matches, their goal has been breached just six times, half of which came in the Clásico at the Bernabéu. Marc-André ter Stegen has rediscovered his best form and has kept 14 clean sheets already.
The only superior figures date back to 1993/94. Deportivo La Coruña (and keeper Francisco Liaño) kept 15 clean sheets in the first 18 games, conceding just five goals.
However, the eye test raises doubts. Barça have looked vulnerable in many games, fortunate not to concede more frequently. The evidence is there: they conceded 12 in just six Champions League games before the World Cup, and conceded three to third-tier Intercity in the Copa. How can this discrepancy be explained?
The aforementioned ter Stegen is a huge factor. He is over-performing the metrics across the board. Barça have accumulated 14.9 expected goals against, more than double the number they have actually conceded. The German goalkeeper has the best save percentage of any stopper in Europe’s top five leagues, touching 90%.
His renaissance is undoubtedly saving Barça in many instances. But this still does not account for the contrast between the league and Europe. Perhaps the quality of players domestically is not as high as what they faced in the Champions League in the form of Bayern and Inter?
Delving into the numbers, using data from fbref, the post-shot xG across the first 17 LaLiga matches was 9.5, while in the five Champions League games ter Stegen played, the figure was 9.7. In other words, the quality of the shots he faced in Europe were much higher than those he is routinely facing in LaLiga. Xavi also had a number of defensive injuries to contend with in the autumn, but now he has Jules Koundé, Ronald Araújo and Andreas Christensen performing consistently.
It seems the answer is a combination of improved performance, confidence, reduced quality of opposition attackers and a little bit of luck. Every champion needs a healthy mix of these, and Barcelona will be no exception if they are to sustain this and go all the way.